2024 Conservative Leadership Election Endorsements: September Update
In a previous post, we looked at which candidates were leading in publicly declared endorsements from a range of individuals, including MPs, former MPs, Peers, and other politicians and public figures.
I realise it’s been over two weeks since the original data was collected, and with the first round of voting just around the corner, I thought it was time for a follow-up to see how things have shifted using the same methodology as before.
Latest Endorsements
As shown in the latest data, Tom Tugendhat has taken the lead with 29 endorsements, followed closely by Robert Jenrick with 27, and Kemi Badenoch in a close third with 26.
When we focus just on MPs, Robert Jenrick is ahead, securing 15 endorsements. This puts him 8 endorsements ahead of the nearest contenders, Badenoch, Mel Stride, and Tugendhat, who each have 7.
These figures have changed quite a bit since my last post, and you can see the breakdown of differences in the table below.
Who gained the most?
Since the last update, more MPs and former MPs have come out to back their preferred candidates. Robert Jenrick has been the biggest beneficiary, gaining support from six new MPs, three former MPs, and one individual.
Not all candidates have managed to broaden their appeal. The bipartite graph below shows where each of the six candidates has drawn their support from, with the edge thickness proportional to the number of endorsements.
Distribution of Support
Of the six candidates, Tom Tugendhat has managed to expand his support base the most, benefiting from endorsements by members of devolved parliaments, such as the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd. This could position him as a unifying candidate, particularly with regional support. Could he be the one to bring the party together? We’ll have to wait and see.
Conclusions
Endorsements are shaping the narrative of the 2024 Conservative leadership race. Robert Jenrick's strong support among sitting MPs and Kemi Badenoch’s backing from former MPs highlight the varying bases of power within the party. Tom Tugendhat’s regional endorsements further add to the complexity, suggesting a multi-faceted race with no clear frontrunner.
As the race continues, these endorsements will be pivotal in determining who ultimately leads the Conservative Party.
